THREE GAMES IN – SOME QUESTIONS
By Ajit Chaudhuri
It’s back! The football lover’s equivalent of a long and lonely winter, extending from the whistle that ends the Champions League final in end-May to the ‘here comes the sun’ moment when the EPL kicks off in mid-August, is finally over.
And it’s three games in! What are my thoughts, from three weekends spent doing my favourite thing – putting on a TV, lying on a couch, and switching off from the world?
Here are the six top questions that have come to mind thus far –
1. Will transfer spend translate into trophies?
This has been a record-breaking transfer window in the EPL – GBP 3 billion plus spent (up from GBP 2.36 billion two summers ago), with Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man U and Newcastle all spending more than GBP 200 million.
Liverpool is an interesting case because it is rare for a defending champion to revamp its roster to such an extent, but probably necessitated by outwards movements (Alexander-Arnold, Diaz, Nunez) and a death (Jota). Most of its GBP 400 million outlay is on attacking talent (Isak, Wirtz, Ekitike) and flying wingbacks (Kerkez, Frimpong) and, despite the only all-win record thus far, two questions remain unanswered. One, how will Coach Slot adjust Wirtz (who cost GBP 100 million plus, i.e., not the sort of money a club spends for someone destined to warm a bench) into the rock-solid midfield that laid the foundation for their title win last season? And two, will the transfer that did not happen, of the brilliant England defender Guehi (Crystal Palace nixed it at the last moment) define their season (they shipped two goals to Bournemouth and two more to Newcastle, who were on ten men)?
Arsenal bought Eze, who I first saw as a kid operating beside Palace legend Zaha and not being outshone, and I would love to watch him and Saka on opposite flanks except for the man in between, their other major signing Gyokeres, proving a dud thus far. Newcastle had the pulling power of a skunk in a perfumery (Isak didn’t want to stay, and targets Sesko, Joao Pedro, Delap, Ekitike, et al, refused to go there) before shelling out on an unknown German (Woltemade did light up the Euro U-21s last year, and none other than Manny Neuer referred to him as ‘Woltemessi’) and then on Wissa to play up front alongside him. Chelsea did what it always does, getting rid of unwanted players at a significant premium, and more about Man U later in this note.
2. Has Pep lost his mojo?
Last year, we said that a brilliant team had grown old and comfortable together, having already won everything there was to win. Or that Rodri, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, was out for the season. Or whatever. This year, what will we say? Underwhelming recruitment? Reijnders impressed in one game, leading to an expectation of memes coming up at Christmas, but he’s no De Bruyne. Cherki – already injured. The others – nobodies, other than two signings for the one position that did not require replacement, i.e., goalkeeper, with young Trafford probably wishing he had gone to Old Trafford given the subsequent coming of Donnarumma. Or is it outdated tactics?
EPL coaching standards are the highest in the world, and tiki-taka football has been read and countered. Teams now break a press using one of three methods – through it by beating a defender one-on-one and forcing a readjust of the press, which is now one short; around it by drawing the press to one side of the field and switching play to the other; and over it via route 1. Also, a brilliant defensive midfielder cum deep lying playmaker is key to tiki-taka, and Pep had Yaya and Busquets in his Barcelona teams, Schweinsteiger at Munich, and Fernandinho and then Rodri at Man City.
Will he be able to play another style? Can he? Does he have the necessary personnel?
3. What’s with the analytics?
It happened first in baseball, and some Brad Pitt film was made. It transferred to basketball and made the NBA unwatchable, with all teams operating with the same tactic – reach the three-point line, set up a shield, take a shot – no more Jordanesque sky hooks, no more Shaq dunks. European basketball is more attractive now.
It is now in football. I could handle the first-gen stats, i.e., possession percentage, shots on goal, and shots on target. I managed the move to the second gen, i.e., field tilt, PPDA, progressions, etc., and then to the xG revolution (not to worry, the exact definitions of these are in annexure). I now find something called ‘NPxG + xA’ to judge the creative ability of a player – for those with an interest, Haaland is head and shoulders above the others on this statistic, and the difference between him and no. 2 Semenyo is more than the difference between no. 2 and no. 25; good to see Grealish at no. 12; and the main surprise is no. 7 Estevao, recruited by Chelsea for bench strength, getting game time due to injuries, and now creating the selection dilemma that coaches dream about – who to play when the big boys return.
Where will all this end? Ultimately, statistics is like a bikini, no matter how much it shows, it always covers the critical stuff. And I, for one, like the measure ‘goals scored minus goals conceded’ the most – it has one hundred percent validity.
4. Will Man U regain its lost glory?
Personally, I don’t give a crap, but here is my two-paisa bit given that many readers follow this team. Great teams have great spines, i.e., goalie, central defender, defensive mid, attacking mid, and striker combos. Not good ones, great ones! Like Cech-Terry-Essien-Lampard-Drogba at Mou’s first Chelsea team. Like Casillas-Ramos-Alonso-Xavi/Iniesta-Torres of that Spain side. And my favourite, young Schmeichel-Morgan-Kante-Drinkwater-Vardy, only one of whom would be considered a great of the game and the subject of the saying ‘two-thirds of earth is covered by water; the rest is covered by N’golo Kante’, but who together had a great period of play in 2015-16.
Onana-Maguire-Mainoo-Fernandes-Hjolund/Zirkzee? Bayindir-De Ligt-Casemiro-Fernandes-Sesko? I just don’t see it happening with the current personnel.
An interesting element is Sesko. How will he fit in? I have seen him for Leipzig and Slovenia, and he has all the makings of a top striker. But strikers from the Bundesliga are hit-and-miss in the EPL, and for every Haaland there is a Werner and a Fullkrug. And, if Man U is slowly turning into a graveyard for talent, it would be hard to reverse.
5. What’s going on with VAR?
Having watched football from the early-1980s and seen some awful refereeing decisions – Schumacher’s assault on Battiston in 1982; Lampard’s disallowed goal in 2010 – I am pro VAR because it gets decisions right. It is my experience that referees err on the side of big teams, and that marginal decisions, too, go one way and not the other. VAR is worth the wait, worth the disruption in play, and worth the tentative goal celebrations.
Some events of this weekend shook my belief. I saw a beautiful goal for Fulham against Chelsea overturned (according to the columnist Marcotti, ‘VAR disallowed King’s counter-attacking goal for an imaginary Muniz foul on Chalobah – when you have possession of the ball and step on the foot of the opponent behind you, who you can’t see since you don’t have eyes on the back of your head, it is not a foul’). And I saw Barcelona being awarded a dubious penalty against Rayo Vallecano which the VAR could not review because it was not functional at that time. WTF!! The EPL bosses have acknowledged the error, de-rostered the concerned VAR ref, and reprimanded the on-field ref for changing his original (correct) decision. And it was a home game for Rayo, so their VAR contractor was at fault. But, still, WTF!!
6. Will the EPL-Championship yo-yo continue?
The last two seasons saw all three promoted teams being relegated back into the Championship. Will it happen again this season? The indications are that it won’t, the three promotees have shown signs of fight and have garnered points on the board. My bet is on Sunderland staying up because of one of the most under-the-radar signings of the transfer window, ex-Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen captain Xhaka, who brings steel onto the field and into the dressing room, and who continues to have a wand of a left foot as seen from his pinpoint assist at the end of their 2-1 win over Brentford.
Annexure: Football Analytics
1. Field Tilt (%) ((Team’s final third passes) / (Total no. of final third passes)) * 100 tells us how much attacking territory a team is controlling.
2. NPxG + xA non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists judges a player’s ability to create.
3. PPDA Passes Per Defensive Action (Total opponent passes in their defensive and the middle thirds) / (Total defensive actions by the team, including tackles, interceptions, fouls, challenges, in the same thirds) measures the number of passes a team allows its opponent to make before it attempts a defensive action – this describes the intensity of a press; lower means more aggressive.
4. Progressions Number of times a player runs with the ball for 5 metres or more.
5. xA Expected Assists assesses the likelihood that a given pass will directly lead to a goal allows us to value the underlying contributions of creative players.
6. xG Expected Goals assesses the quality of goal scoring chances in a game and also measures whether a striker is better or worse than expected, whether a team is creating high quality chances, and was a win deserved, based on quality of chances and not just number of goals takes into account variables such as shot type (header, foot shot, volley, bicycle kick, backheel, etc.), shot location (distance to goal, from the centre or from out wide, etc.), assist type (through ball, cross, cut back, set piece, etc.), defensive pressure, goalkeeper positioning, inter alia.
